Gen Z, Quick Commerce, AI to Drive India E-Retail Boom
The report says Gen Z, creator-led discovery and faster delivery models will reshape how India shops as online retail pushes toward a $250 billion market.
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India’s online retail market may nearly triple to $250 billion by 2030, driven by 150 million new shoppers, a doubling in per-capita spend and the growing influence of Gen Z, according to a report by Google and Deloitte.
The report said the market has expanded to about $90 billion from 2019 to 2025, but shopper penetration remains near 30%, leaving significant room for growth.
The next leg of growth is expected to come from faster delivery, more personalized discovery and wider use of artificial intelligence across both customer-facing and back-end operations.
Google and Deloitte said India’s commerce system is at an “inflection point,” with digital infrastructure, channel innovation and changing consumer behavior reshaping how retail is built and scaled.
The report said the shopping journey is becoming more discovery-led and less linear, with inspiration, convenience and fulfillment increasingly overlapping.
Quick commerce is projected to grow sixfold to $50 billion by 2030 and serve about 70 million shoppers, with much of the next wave expected to come from Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities rather than just the biggest metros.
The report also said instant delivery is likely to extend well beyond food, with grocery emerging as a major category and the mix shifting toward more non-food and service-led demand.
The report identified four forces shaping the sector’s next phase: “Inspired, Immersive, Instant and Intelligent.” Together, it said, those shifts could account for roughly $100 billion of incremental commerce growth by 2030.
By 2030, a 220 million-strong Gen Z cohort is expected to account for about 45% of online spend, helping push retail toward digital-first discovery and hyper-personalized shopping.
That generational shift is expected to reinforce demand for authenticity, speed and relevance, pushing commerce toward creator-led discovery and more personalized engagement.
Creator-led commerce alone could contribute $25 billion in gross merchandise value, while immersive formats such as virtual try-ons, unified carts and richer in-store digital tools could add about 20% in incremental revenue, it said.
The report said immersive formats are likely to blur the line between online and offline retail, making digital discovery more shoppable and physical stores more experiential.
Artificial intelligence is central to the outlook. Google and Deloitte said commerce companies need to move from using AI mainly for insights to laying the groundwork for “agentic commerce,” with more autonomous execution across customer experience and back-end operations.
The report said AI could raise profitability by 30% to 35% by improving forecasting, logistics, product development and shopper guidance, while making search and buying decisions more intuitive.
