SoftBank’s Son Rejects AI Bubble Fears, Sees $5 Trillion Annual Spend

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Artificial intelligence will require annual global investment of $5 trillion by 2040, according to SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son, who argued that concerns over an AI investment bubble fundamentally misunderstand the scale of the technological transition underway.

Speaking at SoftBank’s annual corporate conference in Tokyo on Tuesday, Son outlined an expansive vision of an AI-driven economy in which spending on infrastructure, compute, and energy becomes proportionate to AI’s contribution to global economic output rather than today’s technology budgets.

“If AI revenue makes up 20% of global gross domestic product by 2040, spending $5 trillion a year is a rounding error,” Son said. While he did not explain the assumptions behind either projection, the remarks show how some of the industry’s largest investors are framing AI not as another technology cycle but as foundational economic infrastructure.

The comments come as questions intensify over whether the billions flowing into AI models, data centers, chips, and cloud infrastructure will ultimately generate sufficient returns. Capital expenditure across the AI ecosystem has accelerated sharply over the past two years, prompting comparisons with previous technology booms.

Son rejected those comparisons outright.

“Asking if AI is a bubble is absurd,” he said. “I don’t think people who ask that question know what AI is about.”

SoftBank has emerged as one of the industry’s most aggressive AI investors. The Japanese technology group has committed tens of billions of dollars toward building AI infrastructure, financing data centers, investing in robotics companies, and backing OpenAI. Son said SoftBank’s cumulative investment in the ChatGPT developer is expected to exceed $60 billion before the end of 2026, making it one of the company’s largest strategic bets.

Beyond capital, Son argued that AI’s expansion will fundamentally reshape global energy demand. He estimated AI data centers will require 3 terawatts of generating capacity by 2040—roughly 1.8 times today’s total global electricity consumption. While natural gas is likely to power the near-term expansion, he predicted nuclear fusion would ultimately become AI’s primary energy source, describing it as a cleaner and more economical long-term solution than space-based solar power.

Son also reiterated his long-term vision of an “agent-centric” economy, where autonomous AI systems increasingly make decisions, execute tasks, and coordinate with one another with minimal human intervention.

The scale of the forecast goes far beyond today’s AI market. Son expects about 100 trillion autonomous AI agents to be operating by 2040. Such agents are designed to carry out multistep tasks, use software and make limited decisions with less direct human supervision than conventional chatbots.

He also predicted that humanoid robots would move to the center of physical work: “For the first time, humanoid robots will take the main role in physical labor, replacing humans.”

That would extend Son’s vision from software and office work into factories, warehouses, transport, construction, and other labor-intensive industries. Some reports said he envisaged as many as 1 billion humanoid robots alongside the vastly larger population of digital agents.

Powering the system would present an equally formidable challenge. Son estimated that AI data centers could eventually require about 3 terawatts of electricity, around 1.8 times current global electricity consumption.

Gas-fired generation could provide part of the near-term supply, he said, while nuclear fusion might eventually become a longer-term source of power for AI infrastructure.

Fusion, however, has yet to become commercially viable, while large gas and data center projects face high costs, lengthy construction periods, grid constraints and political opposition.

Son also warned that businesses unwilling to adopt AI risked becoming irrelevant. His comments were aimed particularly at Japanese executives, whom he has repeatedly criticized for moving too slowly in embracing technological change.

He said SoftBank could not confine its ambitions to Japan and would need to expand overseas, particularly in the US, where much of the world’s AI model development, computing infrastructure and investment is concentrated.

Son’s remarks reflect a growing divide in the AI industry. While investors continue to question whether current infrastructure spending can be justified on commercial grounds, AI’s most bullish proponents argue that today’s investment cycle is building the foundational infrastructure for the economy.