Why 2026 Could Redefine Global Power and India’s Role in the Quantum Moment

For much of modern history, power followed predictable lines. Control food, and you control people. Control energy, and you control economies. That belief shaped geopolitical thinking for decades.

But as the world moves deeper into the 21st century, a new conviction is taking hold: whoever controls quantum technology will control the future.

In 2026, that belief will no longer remain theoretical. Global technology leaders say this is the year quantum computing crosses a critical threshold, known as quantum advantage, where machines based on quantum mechanics begin to outperform classical computers on real-world problems. And India is racing not just to participate, but to lead.

Quantum is not a single technology. It is a stack built on four foundational pillars: quantum computing, quantum communication, quantum sensing, and quantum materials.

Under India’s National Quantum Mission (NQM), each pillar has been assigned a national hub:

• IISc Bengaluru for computing
• IIT Madras and C-DOT Delhi for communication
• IIT Bombay for sensing
• IIT Delhi for materials

Each pillar, in turn, spans four verticals: applications, services, software, and hardware. Historically, India has excelled at just one of these verticals: services.

That limitation is evident across the global electronics industry. Today, five countries, China, the US, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, control most of the world’s hardware supply chains. Indians contribute talent across companies like Intel and IBM, but largely as service providers. The result is invisibility.

“We contribute talent and expertise to everyone, but we don’t control the supply chain,” says Venkat Subramaniam, former Quantum Lead at IBM Research India. “That’s why our name never comes up.”

Quantum, India believes, is the chance to change that equation.

The Year 2026 Matters

According to IBM’s public roadmap, 2026 is the year quantum advantage is expected to emerge, with fault-tolerant quantum computers projected by 2029.

Quantum advantage refers to a specific concept: a demonstrable case where a quantum computer performs a real, practical task faster or more efficiently than a classical machine, utilising quantum effects such as superposition, entanglement, and interference.

So far, this has mainly existed in theory. However, positive signs are emerging.

In September, HSBC demonstrated the world’s first quantum-enabled algorithmic trading system, showing a 34 percent performance improvement in optimising bond-market trading strategies using IBM’s quantum computers. The experiment used real, production-scale financial data and examined how quantum systems could more accurately predict the probability of winning trades in over-the-counter markets.

IBM stopped short of formally declaring it a quantum advantage, but the markets reacted nonetheless. IBM’s stock rose 4–5 percent the same day. Within 24 hours, financial institutions worldwide were contacting IBM to replicate the approach.

This is what 2026 looks like: early breakthroughs that trigger industry-wide momentum.

Quantum Cannot Be Built in Isolation

Quantum advantage doesn’t emerge in silos. It requires physicists working with finance professionals, chemists collaborating with algorithm designers, and hardware engineers co-located with startups.

To understand how to build such ecosystems, Indian policymakers consulted the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank. Their advice was that success requires tight, startup-driven clusters with end-to-end capability.

Two historical examples shaped India’s thinking.

The first was Route 128 near Boston, a corporate-driven tech hub that ultimately failed, in contrast to Silicon Valley, which thrived because startups, not incumbents, drove innovation.

The second was closer to home. In the 1980s, Gurgaon–Dharuhera became the heart of India’s automotive revolution when Maruti Suzuki and Hero Honda forced their suppliers to co-locate. Within 15 years, car production jumped from 20,000 to 700,000 units, local content reached over  90%, and India built a multi-billion-dollar auto industry.

“The lesson was clear,” Subramaniam says. “Startup-driven ecosystems and tight geographic clusters. That is the model we are now applying to quantum.”

India’s Quantum Frontiers

Nowhere is this strategy more visible than in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

Andhra Pradesh is building Quantum Valley in Amaravati, positioning it as India’s first fully integrated quantum cluster. In the first half of 2026, IBM Quantum System Two will be installed there, placing India among a handful of nations hosting the platform. 

Alongside IBM’s systems, Indian platforms like QpiAI and Confluence will also be deployed, spanning superconducting and neutral-atom technologies.

A temporary facility near the Amaravati airport is already operational, offering free seats to startups to accelerate clustering even before the permanent Quantum Valley Tech Park is completed.

The state has backed this initiative with one of India’s most aggressive quantum policies: grants of up to ₹30 lakh, seed funding of ₹1 crore, patent reimbursement of up to 75 percent, go-to-market support up to ₹5 crore, rental subsidies, and subsidized access to quantum and HPC infrastructure.

The ambition is equally bold in talent. According to a NITI Aayog report, India will need to train more than 100,000 quantum developers through national skilling programs, focusing on software stacks such as Qiskit, Cirq, and Indian-developed platforms.

Andhra Pradesh aims to train 100,000 quantum developers by 2027, with a focus on training from within the state . Programs like WISER, already the world’s largest quantum training initiative with over 50,000 students, play a central role in that push. 

Karnataka, meanwhile, has cleared land for India’s first dedicated Quantum City at Hesaraghatta near Bengaluru. The state has committed ₹1,000 crore to its quantum mission, aiming to build a $20 billion quantum economy by 2035.

Other states, such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Uttar Pradesh, are also moving forward, signing MoUs with global players like IONQ and launching quantum corridors and parks. But Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh currently lead the race.

Talent is Not the Problem; Industry Adoption Is

According to most global estimates, India already boasts the world’s largest quantum talent pool. Programs from Quantum Valley, NPTEL, and national skilling initiatives aim to train over 100,000 developers by 2030 in platforms like Qiskit, Cirq, and indigenous stacks.

The missing ingredient is not talent or policy—it is corporate participation.

In the US, banks like HSBC are deeply involved; in Japan, conglomerates like Mitsubishi are experimenting; in Germany, private industry has jumped in aggressively—in India, however, quantum remains driven largely by government institutions and startups.

“Corporates don’t need massive investments,” Subramaniam argues. “Assign two people, pick one use case, take two interns. That’s enough to start.”

Without this step, India risks repeating a familiar pattern: building capability but allowing others to capture the value it creates.

India’s Supply Chain Ambition

A quantum computer is not just a processor. It is an ecosystem of cryogenics, wiring, control electronics, amplifiers, power supplies, and fabrication.

Globally, when companies like IBM or Google announce a quantum system, they typically build the processor. Most other components come from a handful of suppliers worldwide.

India wants to change that.

Startups and researchers across the country are already building TWPA amplifiers, cryogenic flex cables, cryostats, and precision control systems. A ₹200 crore quantum cryogenic facility is under development in Amaravati. Plans are underway for India’s first reference quantum computer, a shared system against which components can be tested, and a quantum foundry to enable scaling beyond 100 qubits.

“We want to build every single component in India,” Subramaniam says. “Faster, cheaper, and better than anywhere else.”

The Prediction

So, where will quantum advantage first appear in 2026? No one knows for sure. Finance and life sciences appear to be the most advanced, but automotive, chemicals, logistics, and aviation are also beginning to make significant progress.

“Ideally, we would love for it to emerge from India,” Subramaniam says. “Many of our scientists are already working on new algorithms and applications.”

What is clear is this: 2026 will mark the beginning of quantum’s industrial phase. India is no longer content being the invisible backbone of global technology. With clusters forming, supply chains activating, and quantum advantage on the horizon, the country is making a decisive bet.

This time, it doesn’t just want to participate in the future. It wants to build it.